Over the weekend we got word that the Virginia GOP is nervous about John McCain's possibly losing Virginia.
Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain's prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy. With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed.
Since June, the Obama campaign has held 12 events in Virginia, the McCain campaign just 1. In addition, Obama has exploited his cash advantage in the state:
Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth's most populous region.
According to two new polls, the VA GOP's worries are well-founded.
| Suffolk University 10/3-5 | Survey USA 10/4-5 | RCP | |
| Barack Obama | 51 | 53 | 49.9 |
| John McCain | 39 | 43 | 45 |
Survey USA gives a sense of the trend they've found in Virginia over the past month.
In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.
There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.
There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.
There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.
That is nothing short of devastating for the Republican nominee. But hey, at least he's spending time in Iowa!
H/t to Raising Kaine for the alert that today is the registration deadline in Virginia, so if you live in VA, tell everyone you know to register today.
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