Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon

by MissVA, Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:00:34 PM EST

She has a problem......

In Oregon......

Another Obama trounce is coming. In the biggest state in the remaining primaries.
He is showing rock solid leads.

Poblano estimates:

''So that would imply that total turnout will slightly exceed 1 million. That would be extremely high turnout for a closed primary -- about 110% of the Kerry vote. Although the last three states to vote have exceeded 100% of the Kerry total, those were open primaries; the highest ratio for a closed primary so far is 82%''

Think about 1 million. He will cover in just Oregon alone what gains she made in WV and KY.

The great progressive state of Oregon will romp it for Obama.

Oregon will report after KY. So all the news will be focused on the tallies coming in. Obama will be centre of it all.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/h illarys-oregon-problem.html

Go Baracky.




Tags: Obama, Oregon (all tags)

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Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (none / 0)

If her logic is right, and whites support her, she should be winning by a landslide, isn't it? Oh I forgot, she is only winning among whites that vote for her...


by Fairy Tale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:03:57 PM EST

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (1.66 / 3)

Not enough bigots in Oregon.


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In November, (2.00 / 3)

will the analysis of why people voted the way they voted change the result of how they voted?


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In November, (none / 0)

I would rather appease a fiscal moderate than a social bigot.


by Pravin on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (2.00 / 3)

Yeah, yeah. Everyone who doesn't vote for Obama is a bigot.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:23:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (2.00 / 1)

"Yeah, yeah. Everyone who doesn't vote for Obama is a bigot."

No, but bigots do tend to vote in their greatest majority for Hillary.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (2.00 / 1)

What makes someone a bigot?

To me, anyone voting because of the race or gender of the candidate and not voting on the issues is doing a disservice to their party.  And both Hillary and Barack have their fair share of these supporters.  He's getting 92% black support, let's remember - that's not all people who like him on the issues.  That's a lot of black people supporting a black guy over a white woman.  To me that is equally bad as a white person voting for Hillary just because she is a white woman.


by mikes101 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (2.00 / 1)

I'm perfectly willing to agree that there are probably as much a percentage of black bigots as there's a percentage of white bigots.

But there are more white people, thusly there are more white bigots than black ones.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (none / 0)

That ignores the entire history of race in this country. Given the historical powerlessness of African Americans, I submit that a black person supporting another black person is NOT the same thing as a white person opposing a black person because of the color of his skin.


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:55:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (none / 0)

Well, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but perception is important.  If Obama is the nominee it is very important that the election does not get framed at all in terms of black versus white, because that will be advantageous for McCain.  I think all supporters of a candidate should be able to list off some solid policy reasons why they like him or her - black or white.  And I don't sense that there is enough of that going on in the white working-class community right now, nor in the black community.  

If you secretly support Obama because he is black that is cool, but keep that to yourself don't wear it on your shirt-sleeve.  Because if he is seen to be getting black support "just because he's black", that has the potential to prompt and to some degree justify an equal or greater irrational response on the other side to support the other candidate because they are white.

>>I submit that a black person supporting another black person is NOT the same thing as a white person opposing a black person because of the color of his skin.

Who is saying that the white people "oppose" the black candidate?  Aren't black people also "opposing" the white candidate if you want to frame the question that way (note that nobody has polled North Carolina or Georgia blacks to see if that was the case)?


by mikes101 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Saying something (2.00 / 1)

Doesn't make it true.  Also, you sound like the bigot in this exchange if you have this much contempt for a group of people you don't even know.


by daria g on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:41:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Saying something (none / 0)

"Saying something Doesn't make it true.  Also, you sound like the bigot in this exchange if you have this much contempt for a group of people you don't even know."

If you're addressing me, then I would concur that saying something doesn't make it true. But facts do. And we know from the WV exit polls that 1/4 of Hillary's supporters considered the race of the candidates in deciding who to vote for. I for one would rather lose than win with the support of bigots. And Hillary should denounce any such support, like Edwards did.


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:14:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Saying something (none / 0)

"Saying something doesn't make it true."

We can check the exit polls of cnn and see whether the results for Obama are better or worse when you only count people that said the race of the candidate didn't affect them.

e.g. The California CNN exit polls : the people in California who said race of candidate was important went 61% Clinton/38% Obama/1% Edwards -- the people who said it wasn't important went 51% Clinton/42% Obama/5% Edwards.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (2.00 / 2)

The bigot talk really isn't helping anything.

There are millions of Hillary supporters who I'm sure abhor racism.  Let's not claim her impressive tallies in this primary season are driven by hatred of a black man.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:32:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (none / 0)

Of course there are millions of Hillary supporters who abhor racism. But that doesn't change the fact that 1/4 of her supporters in West Virginia wouldn't vote for Obama simply because he's black. I'd like to see Hillary denounce that support. Remember when John Edwards said he didn't want the votes of anyone who was considering not voting for Obama because he's black or Hillary because she's a woman? Why doesn't Hillary stand up and say that?  


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why can't Hillary win Oregon? (none / 0)

if 25% of Obama's supporters in a certain state said they were voting for him because he's a big strong man and she's a weak-willed woman, and that all woman should go back to the kitchen, the Hillary people would be crying foul so hard you could hear the screams through the internet.


John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.
by terra on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:27:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She may lose big in Oregon, (2.00 / 2)

but it won't be 41.3%.


That's it, baby; let's go win this election!
by Beltway Dem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She may lose big in Oregon, (2.00 / 1)

he doesn't need that big of a win so it won't matter


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She may lose big in Oregon, (2.00 / 3)

We've gotten a few of those lopsided blowouts on our side. I wouldn't brag about it too much.

Congrats all the same.


Unable to rec or rate Still supporting Obama
by astoria gooner on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Probably, but lets not count our chickens (2.00 / 5)

quite yet...

And let's also not cede this popular vote argument to the Clinton camp. Popular vote is meaningless, except in the sense that if he can end up with the popular vote it takes away one illegitimate argument about why he should be denied the nomination.


Your old role is rapidly aging. Please get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, for the times they are a changing.
by Travis Stark on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:04:18 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 3)

He's also not going to do as bad in Kentucky as he did in WV. I think it will be within 15 points in Kentucky. So the gains that she made in WV will easily be cancelled out again by his win in Oregon and a closer than expected margin in Kentucky.  It is then on to PR where he will win. Yes, I said Barack will win PR.


by sweet potato pie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:08:04 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

is there any polling or english online newswpapers on Puerto Rico?


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:10:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

Jesse Jackson won there in 1988.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:12:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

that is awesome, but I haven't been able to find any info about PR and how much they like Obama


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:21:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 3)

Wait. I thought it was racist to point out that Jackson won in past primaries and compare his chances to Obama.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:24:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

it is if you frame it the way Bill Clinton did


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 1)

He said the same thing.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

look we are all big boys here, if you can't see what he was trying to do, I can't help you with that.  Even her own campaign admitted what he did was stupid so there is really no debate about it.


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 1)

"Wait. I thought it was racist to point out that Jackson won in past primaries and compare his chances to Obama."

Only when your real meaning is that black votes don't really mean much.


by Aris Katsaris on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

The governor endorsed him too.


Obama/Warner 2008
by MissVA on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

Yes,

El Nuevo Dia is good PR newspaper over there.


by sweet potato pie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

cool thanks


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:00:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't see this as a big deal (2.00 / 1)

Why are we even talking about it, guys?  Right now we're playing out the motions and getting Democratic exposure in the remaining states.

I fail to see how this can even be called a contested race at this point.  I'm fairly certain that Clinton and Obama have a handshake agreement to tag team the last few states to keep the spotlight on Democrats rather than McCain.  Let's just focus on voter registration and strategies for beating the GOP this fall.

We're doing great... +3 House seats and counting!


The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:17:36 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 2)

Another pointless and divisive diary. I really am beginning to wonder if the Obama supporters really want a unified party


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:19:21 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 4)

maybe you should ask your fellow diarists who have obama bashing diaries on the rec on a daily basis.


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

I'm for a unified party. I want to win the Olympic gold, not just the Olympic trials. By the way, your comment tells me that you are quite comfortable with divisive diaries on the side you say you are on. However the only one who gains by dividing us is McCain.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:19:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 2)

The funniest thing about the whole Obama camp right now is that they want, hell they demand, humiliating defeat of Clinton, so they can move on to "post partisan" patty-cake with Republicans.  At least, that is really the sum total of everything Obama promises to bring to the White House.


by dhonig on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:38:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

Obama wins the GE because he brings in Independants. Hillary would not have been able to do that. On the contrary, she would have motivated the GOP base, which might otherwise have stayed home, to go out and vote against her.  


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

I hope your strategy isn't some kind of belief that the GOP base will stay home. However if it is, then, I guess, you don't need unity.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:29:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 2)

dude calm down he only needs 140 delegates.  No one wants to humiliate Hillary, she is a fellow democrat.


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:48:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 1)

Please don't condescend.  And as for what "nobody wants," well, you obviously haven't been to the Big Orange Blog lately.


by dhonig on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

The big orange is not a reflection of the majority of Obama supporters as hillaryis44.org is not a correct representation of Hillary supporters.  The majority us like and admire Hillary, we just think he is a better candidate. Stop trying to divide us; you fall into their trap when you do that!


I would say at this point we're starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support... NY Governor Paterson
by obamaovermccain on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How is it divisive? (none / 0)

You guys have been crowing now for something like 19 hours about how the huge victory Hillary won in WV dooms Obama's chances in November.  Does this diary do that? no.  Does this diary question whether she's going to win Oregon? no.  It points out that he is going to win Oregon by a lot.  How in any fashion is that divisive?  Should we not celebrate our candidate anymore?  Is it divisive to even mention Obama's name in a postive light?  The double standards are mind-boggling here.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:23:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How is it divisive? (none / 0)

There is a big difference, and you know it, so don't try to bamboozle us. Obama is the all but certain winner, everyone on every side knows it. It is paramount that he accepts winning with dignity and not the prolonged endzone dance that some of his alleged supporters keep doing.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton supporters are doing nothing, but... (none / 0)

shredding Obama's character (Jerome's front page post yesterday comparing Barack to Bush) and rubbing in our faces a huge loss in WV.  Why is it so wrong for us to celebrate an equally big win in Oregon?  How is that divisive?  Why can't we be happy about the success of our candidate?  If you're so hot and bothered about divisiveness, why don't I see you chastising thsoe Clinton supporters who are bashing the "persumptive" nominee?  I do not see anything, but a double standard that you are trying to employ.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton supporters are doing nothing, but... (none / 0)

You either can't understand or won't understand what I am saying. You are missing my main point as the winners in this campaign, it is incumbent on the winning side to accept victory with grace and dignity. You don't do an endzone dance because you happen to score a touchdown when the game is well in hand. However if you think that's a good idea, then knock yourself out, but I think it's divisive.

One other thing, I speak for myself. I am not responsible for the words of others. If you have a problem with them, I would suggest you take it up with them. When I feel my words reflect the feelings of others, I'll let you know.

I sincerely hope we could one day work together in unity, but, quite frankly, I am really beginning to doubt it.


The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. -- David Friedman
by pollbuster on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is not a suprise (2.00 / 2)

Much like Clinton defeating Obama in WVA.  


by optimusprime on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:35:23 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (none / 0)

susa says their polling shows it tied in early voting, and since its a 100% postal vote in OR it may be closer than obama worshippers think.


by zane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:41:50 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 1)

SUSA has been wrong this season and when they are off they are off big time. See MO, Indiana, and North Carolina.


by sweet potato pie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:47:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (1.50 / 2)

Well, I just checked out Poblano's website and he says that the Democratic turnout will be about 600,000, not one million.  And in the unlikely event that Obama wins the state by 20 points, his vote margin still wouldn't equal Hillary's vote margin in the much smaller West Virginia, let alone in West Virginia and Kentucky combined as you suggest.

Perhaps you'd like to correct your diary.


Jim Martin for Senate!
by markjay on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:04:52 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Lose Big in Oregon (2.00 / 1)

nowhere near as big as Obama lost West Virginia


by moevaughn on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:17:47 PM EST


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