The Official Predictions Thread

OK. I'm seeing these going up and some are being scientific about it and others are just being wishful.

But I remember the run-up to the North Carolina and Indiana primaries and the spin afterwards where people back-tracked from their predictions and smugness once the real results came in.

So I want a repository of all predictions so when the results are tallied, the votes are in and the delegates are divvied out, we know where everyone stands with a click of the button, Ctrl+F and the user's name.

That means being honest. What are your expectations? What do you believe will transpire tomorrow - and no fifty predictions. One or two for both Kentucky and Oregon, perhaps a best or worst case scenario. If you want to explain your reasoning, that's fine. You can of course debate it, but don't stomp on people's predictions if they plan sweeps for their candidate or not.

Most expect a split, but once again, like in North Carolina and Indiana, the expectations game is likely going to be won by Senator Obama. Once again, the polls show a "tightening" of the race and people are beginning to whisper about 3 or 4 or 5 point victories.

If Senator Obama wins by 10+ points, it's again a win in the expectations game for their campaign. This seems obvious to me as Senator Clinton left the state and it's likely her internals showed there was little hope of closing the gap to 5, let alone 10. But it was a move that was too late with the media picking up the narrative of a big win in Kentucky and a tight race in Oregon. We'll see.

So here are my predictions. They don't include specific percentages but I do expect both to be double digits for their respective candidates.

------------------------------

Oregon - Senator Obama wins the state by more than 12%
Senator Obama, 32 Delegates
Senator Clinton, 20 Delegates

Kentucky - Senator Clinton wins the state by more than 25%
Senator Clinton, 34 Delegates
Senator Obama, 17 Delegates

So what are your predictions?



Display:


Kucinich +50 in both contests. (2.00 / 1)


by semiquaver on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:12:01 PM EST

Off by 50! (2.00 / 1)

I expect a Gravelanche in both states.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Off by 50! (2.00 / 0)

ya beat me by 30 seconds!!  ;)


by Kysen on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rofl. (none / 0)

Gravel does not find it funny, however. He's going with a boulder to the competition.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kucinich +50 in both contests. (2.00 / 0)

No way.
Gravel is gonna thump them all!!!
Power to the People!!
;)
by Kysen on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HMmm (2.00 / 1)

OR: Obama +13
KY: Clinton +33
by Tatan on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:12:35 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 1)

KY: Clinton by 30%
Or: Obama by 6%
by Mayor McCheese on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:13:09 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (none / 0)

Obama by 11 in Oregon

Clinton by 34 in Kentucky


by KyleJRM on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:24:00 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (none / 0)

KY:  Clinton by 22 points
OR:  Obama by 18 points
by Bargeron on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:24:13 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 0)

OR -- Obama by 12

KY -- Clinton by a bazillion.

Pat Buchanon will be very "concerned" about Obama's performance among working-class whites in KY, failing to note Obama strength among white people in Oregon. Begala will rename Oregon "the Egghead State."


by DPW on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:26:42 PM EST

What's sad is the likelihood of this is very high (none / 0)

-.-.

But Paul Begala's a good dude. Him and Harold Ford have come around and know where the Democrats are going and heading and are starting to rally around that vision.


Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"
by Lord Hadrian on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

agree (none / 0)

Yeah, I like Begala fine. But, when he starts with the spinning, he says some dumb things. I also think Harold Ford has generally been a good voice on the cable shows, except for the fact that he backs the gas tax.


by DPW on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:34:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 1)

i predicted IN & NC based on polls and I was wrong as much as polls (i thought SUSA is good pollsters, but SUSA was off).
so I will not say numbers, but I think she will win big in KY and lose OR; in delegates she will get little more than Obama.
we will be stunned if she will win OR.
Landslide of lies
by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:39:20 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 0)

KY: Clinton by 35%
Or: Obama by 7%

david


by giusd on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:41:20 PM EST

SUSA: OR: C42-O55 (none / 0)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=43d3ad90-4714-4aef-ad28-931961 c0aaf6


Landslide of lies
by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 02:43:31 PM EST

Re: SUSA: OR: C42-O55 (none / 0)

with 4% margin it could be 51-46 in OR. That is 5%.


You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat
by indydem99 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 05:01:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 0)

Kentucky
Clinton - 62 (+33)
Obama - 29

Oregon
Obama - 55 (+12)
Clinton - 43


by TCQuad on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:02:42 PM EST

Re: The Official Predictions Thread (2.00 / 1)

Clinton with an absurd amount, yet not enough to matter,

And Obama with plenty, which also won't matter.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Mon May 19, 2008 at 03:11:18 PM EST


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