OK. I'm seeing these going up and some are being scientific about it and others are just being wishful.
But I remember the run-up to the North Carolina and Indiana primaries and the spin afterwards where people back-tracked from their predictions and smugness once the real results came in.
So I want a repository of all predictions so when the results are tallied, the votes are in and the delegates are divvied out, we know where everyone stands with a click of the button, Ctrl+F and the user's name.
That means being honest. What are your expectations? What do you believe will transpire tomorrow - and no fifty predictions. One or two for both Kentucky and Oregon, perhaps a best or worst case scenario. If you want to explain your reasoning, that's fine. You can of course debate it, but don't stomp on people's predictions if they plan sweeps for their candidate or not.
Most expect a split, but once again, like in North Carolina and Indiana, the expectations game is likely going to be won by Senator Obama. Once again, the polls show a "tightening" of the race and people are beginning to whisper about 3 or 4 or 5 point victories.
If Senator Obama wins by 10+ points, it's again a win in the expectations game for their campaign. This seems obvious to me as Senator Clinton left the state and it's likely her internals showed there was little hope of closing the gap to 5, let alone 10. But it was a move that was too late with the media picking up the narrative of a big win in Kentucky and a tight race in Oregon. We'll see.
So here are my predictions. They don't include specific percentages but I do expect both to be double digits for their respective candidates.
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Oregon - Senator Obama wins the state by more than 12%
Senator Obama, 32 Delegates
Senator Clinton, 20 Delegates
Kentucky - Senator Clinton wins the state by more than 25%
Senator Clinton, 34 Delegates
Senator Obama, 17 Delegates
So what are your predictions?
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