MyDD :: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38%

Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38%

by MissVA, Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:22:13 PM EST

Survey USA has polled Iowa and found that Obama leads McCain 47% to 38%. Looking at the crosstabs, this looks somewhat better than the Ohio poll last week did, since this has Obama winning independents 48% to 33%.

However, this poll also has a big percentage of Democrats in the sample - the numbers are 45% Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 24% independents. The CNN Iowa exit poll for 2004 put the voting numbers at 34% Democrats, 36% Republicans, and 30% independents.

So either we've seen a big shift in party ID in Iowa (not impossible, the entire country is having buyer's remorse over the Republicans, and Iowa more so than most states, it seems), or the poll is suspect. Take your pick.

They also polled various VP combinations, as they've been doing in other states. Since Edwards has consistently polled as the strongest pick for Obama, and Huckabee and Romney have consistently polled as the strongest picks for McCain, I think this is probably mostly just name recognition at this point. However, it's worth noting that Obama/Edwards beats McCain/Pawlenty by a ludicrous 26 percentage points. The best combination for McCain (McCain/Huckabee) beats the worst combination for Obama (Obama/Rendell) by only 8. Make of that what you will.

Link- http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 05/27/vp-head-to-head-in-iowa/

Update-

Here's what Barack Obama plans to say at 3:30 pt ET in North Las Vegas, NV:
"I just had the privilege of visiting with Felicitas Rosel and Francisco Cano at their home here in Las Vegas.

Today, John McCain is having a different kind of meeting. He's holding a fundraiser with George Bush behind closed doors in Arizona. No cameras. No reporters. And we all know why. Senator McCain doesn't want to be seen, hat-in-hand, with the President whose failed policies he promises to continue for another four years."

Tune into your LIVE news feeds to see him.

Link- http://thepage.time.com/ Transcript http://thepage.time.com/obamas-full-remarks-in-north-las-vegas-tuesday/

Tags: Iowa Poll (all tags)

Permalink :: 26 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 2)

Love Obama's comment.

My guess would be that the party ID numbers aren't that far off at all. That's the Bush legacy for ya.

by Lawyerish on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:26:09 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

Do you have a link for that Obama comment at the end? I want to cut and paste it all over the interwebz.

Stop the racism. Fight the smears.

by CrazyDrumGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:29:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Its on the The Page
http://thepage.time.com/

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

It's at the bottom of the diary now.

by Lawyerish on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:32:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Thanks!

Stop the racism. Fight the smears.

by CrazyDrumGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:17:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

Double w00t.

Serious question- Is This Snark?

by ragekage on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:34:55 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

More update on the Las Vegas comment by Obama
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/27/ 141426/748/82/523667

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:39:29 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 2)

Looking at the registration numbers, it doesn't completely explain their party ID numbers.

But while Dem registration has been trending upward, Rep registration has been trending downward. The 28% Rep number looks fairly accurate, though the Dem number might be a bit high. I would say if anything, the independent number is understated.

But considering Obama is winning independents, I think its safe to say his lead in the state is real.

by BlueGAinDC on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:40:44 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Independents might be reporting their affiliation as democratic, especially after the primaries.

The primaries are over!
Focus on McCain

by really not a troll on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

it is old news that Obama has better chance in IA - all counters of Electoral vores have it since 5/13/08
Problem for Obama in most other swing states like FL or WV and even NC, MO, AR & KY

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:53:41 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (2.00 / 2)

With all due respect the path to victory for Obama doesn't run through KY, AR or WV.

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:57:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Kentucky and AR are swing states now?

Not so much

by Lawyerish on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:12:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

KY--all winners since 64 (2.00 / 1)

KY has gone with the winner every time since 1964. One should only speak when one knows the facts. Otherwise it wastes our time.

by katmandu1 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:19:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: KY--all winners since 64 (2.00 / 1)

That sort of statement is misleading. Every single election year since 1964, besides 2000 or 2004, has seen the president winning with a margin greater than Kentucky's electoral votes. and West Virginia's, for that matter. Therefore the "votes for the winner" thing is sheer superstition.

John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.

by terra on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You didn't know? (none / 0)

Kentucky's electoral college is comprised of necromancers that engage in human sacrifice and black magic to ensure that the winner of their state is the winner of the general election.

I know this to be true because corollation is the same as causation. It's the only thing that makes sense.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not a bellwether state (2.00 / 1)

Al Gore and Mike Dukakis carried Iowa, and lost. Carter lost it in 76 and won. Nixon won it and lost.

by katmandu1 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:17:23 PM EST

Re: Not a bellwether state (none / 0)

What the hell does any of that mean? Silly formulas to discount the electoral votes available in a state?

The fact is, Obama will win in several states that Bush carried in 04. Both of my past two home states, Colorado and Iowa are going to go Obama. And it's just an example of a shift. Virginia could well go Obama too. He's going to make McCain defend many states that Bush could take for granted. McCain can't afford to be spread thin. The 50 state strategy is going to blow holes all over the GOP's map and we'll pick up the big swing states because of it.

by Sun Dog on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not a bellwether state (none / 0)

And as Maine goes, so goes Vermont.

by PantherDem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Believe it (2.00 / 2)

As an Iowan I can say we are definitely going to deliver for Obama.

We were the Obama campaign for an entire year. I don't think polling or past models can really capture the support here. Every neighborhood in the state has some level of organization built in from the caucus campaign. McCain barely moved the needle here.

Just as an example, I know exactly who I'm going to be hooking up with this fall for canvassing and GOTV efforts. We hit the streets here for months on end and on caucus night we had thousands of people becoming Democrats for the first time to support Obama. Enthusiastic people who are psyched about a candidate for the first time in their lives.

McCain aint getting my state. Not after what we've accomplished here. No way.

by Sun Dog on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:19:05 PM EST

Awesome (2.00 / 1)

Fantastic to hear that. You guys surprised everyone.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More bad poll news for Obama from Gallup (2.00 / 1)

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/

#
Pres '08
May 27 Gallup
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
#
Pres '08
May 27 Gallup
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%

This is the about the same spread Rasmussen is reporting.

If you look at Gallup it looks like from their chart that Hillary has led McCain every day this month. Obama, not so much.

by katmandu1 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:27:03 PM EST

Yup, the Newsweek poll shows similiar (none / 0)

May 2008
-----------
Clinton 48%
McCain 44%

Obama 46%
McCain 46%

Last month, Obama was leading McCain:

April 2008
-----------
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

Clinton 47%
McCain 43%

The overall results of the poll indicate electoral challenges facing Obama in a year when Democrats generally appear to hold an electoral advantage:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/138456

by phoenixdreamz on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh no! (none / 0)

Within the margin of error! Whatever will we do?

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Let's see what they say after Obama's acceptance speech here in Denver. That it will be the date 45 years after "I have a Dream"...will not be lost on anyone..
The difference between the two Parties will be stunning after a comparison of the Conventions..
Think of our speakers
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Kennedy
etc...

Who will they have?

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:12:22 PM EST

Re: Iowa: Obama 47% McCain 38% (none / 0)

What up and comer will give the keynote?

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:14:50 PM EST

Patrick Murphy (2.00 / 1)

Patrick Murphy.
Congressman from PA, Iraq war Vet and early Obama endorser.
2016 VP material.

by parahammer on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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